Weekly Flu Report: November 27, 2009

Weekly Report: Download Weekly Report 11_25_09 (Download PDF Weekly Report 11_25_09)

We have received some questions about "Table 3: Confirmed influenza cases in Massachusetts" in the Weekly Report. This table can be somewhat confusing because seasonal and untyped influenza cases are grouped together in the final column making it seem that seasonal flu is already heavily present in Massachusetts, or that there is a lot more "other" flu than H1N1. This number can be misleading because at this point, almost all untyped flu is H1N1 influenza. However, this will start to change next month when seasonal flu traditionally arrives in MA. In addition, the cases reported, whether H1N1 or untyped/seasonal, are only the tip of the iceberg in terms of total number of cases. We subtype a small amount of cases only to get a sense of trends in illness. To get a better sense of the actual presence of flu in your community you should look at Figure 1 which represents percentages of influenza-like visits reported by sentinel provider sites in the state. As you can see, at this point, the amount of flu activity in the state is much higher than in a normal year.

In terms of vaccine supply, Massachusetts has now received more than 1.2 million H1N1 doses. As we move into December, we expect that there will continue to be regular shipments with significant amounts of vaccine. Therefore, every week more and more public clinics should be added to flu.masspro.org. If you don't see a flu clinic listed in your area, we encourage you to check the site regularly for updates. We know that the delays have been extremely frustrating and we appreciate your patience as we all await more vaccine from the Federal government.

We encourage all residents to utilize the comments section on this blog to engage with us and each other. While we cannot respond to every comment or question directly, we find them very helpful to understand your questions and concerns and plan for future posts.

Comments

[Melissa Davenport]

I also live in the South Shore where the towns surrounding are having flu clinics, but not my town. Also, I don't understand why some towns are not providing H1N1 vaccines to children over 2, other towns not for children under 5? What about children over 2 and under 5 who attend daycare and could be introduced to the H1N1 virus in that environment?
I am very distraught by the continuing postponement of flu shipments. I was just in Florida where there were flu clinics at all the local drugstores, but we can't get them from our pediatrician's office or through our town?

[gg]

i am still wondering why this vaccine is NOT available on the south shore. my child has had her first dose (which took a tremendous amount of effort for me to find) but now i am right back where i started trying desperately to locate her second dose. my childs doctors office is only getting small amounts of the vaccine and they are distributing it according to the guidelines but my child who is 6 is not in the group receiving vaccine. the town that i live in is not holding a clinic but according to the newspaper they have at least 150 doses that is not being distributed. my question would be why is the town and possibly others sitting on this vaccine? this just doesn't make sense.

[janet cooke]

I am deeply disappointed that despite the fact that I work with at risk developmentally challenged citizens I cannot get either a seasonal shot (which at least they have had) or the H1N1.
While I understand that children seem to be the most at risk, there are other groups with weaknesses as well.
To be told by my local Health Dept. that there is nothing available is disheartening.

[Rob Stafford]

I understand that H1N1 is effecting younger persons but according to table 4. It is killing more middle aged and older persons 25-44age 4 persons died, 45-64age 9 person died,65+ 4 persons died. So why would you try to save more lives and give it to the old age groups first. I am a healthy 43 and want to stay that way call me selfish if you want. I get the seasonal vaccine every year. It seems the vaccine companies have really botched the delivery of the vaccine immensely. Initial reports from the CDC said the vaccine would be avaiable for all by the end of October and Middle of November.

[Kristine Brown]

My 7 year old son has had his first dose of h1n1 vaccine 30 days ago. He is now due for his 2nd dose and hid pediatrician's office is telling me they are only giving 2nd doses to children under the age of 2 right now.
How long is he protected by the first dose? Will he need to start the vaccine process all over again if he doesn't get the 2nd dose timely?

[Janice B England]

Curious when this 67 year old female with history of asthma and pneumonia (x4 since 2005) will be able to get the H1N1 flu shot.

[laura]

thank you so much for your two clarifying comments.

I still strongly think that in EACH WEEK's report, right near those tables, you need to comment on the approximate percentage of flu that is likely the pandemic strain. ...because, obviously, not everyone, perhaps a MINORITY of people, check the report EVERY week. The likelyhood that they will see your ONE clarification, in THIS weeks blog, is not that large.

The column with "seasonal and untested" flu catagory will continue to mislead without a WEEKLY statement ajoining it explaining as you do in this weeks blog.

Why not make it TWO columns rather than one. "seasonal" and "untested"? That is much more accurate and will not mislead. We actually, as you probably are aware, CANNOT ASSUME that seasonal flu will rise this season in the same way that it usually does. In the southern hemishere winter, it did not and the pandemic strain outcompeated it. So, we CANNOT KNOW in advance how much of flu this winter and spring will be pandemic vs seasonal. THus, the catagory "seasonal and untested" lacks meaning accept to make people ASSUME that alot of flu is seasonal.

I think it is much better simply to have two catagories not one. People will get flu tests, some won't. You will have three sets of data...some pandemic flu, some seasonal, and some untested. Why not convey that?

can't imagine why you would lump the two togeather...only result is making the meaning of the data more cloudy. Separate catagories clarifies.

thanks for considering this seriously. If you don't change the tables to add another column, at LEAST explain on each report the percentages of circulating flu's thought to be pandemic vs seasonal at that time...explain each week what's in the blog here so people looking at the weekly report understand it better.

My friend looked at it and said "looks like alot of the flu may be seasonal" when she saw the report. IF someone like her sees another report like it, they will think the same.

[Mrs. Bryant]

Both my husband and my son had been diagnosed with H1N1 by doctors; my son by his health care provider, my husband after a visit to the local Emergency Department. My son's illness and recovery were much more mild than my husband's, who after two weeks is just now beginning to feel more like himself again. So it is at this time that we're curious just how long the antibodies will stay with a previously infected person once they've had the virus, and if the vaccination should still be considered down the road. There has been so much infection now that I believe people with post-infections might have some interest in something directed toward them as well. Thank you in advance for whatever advice you could provide.